Thursday, March 31, 2016

Anatomy of a Trump Ceiling in Wisconsin

It's simple, the vast majority of the other candidates' supporters can't stand him (from Public Policy Polling):

Reading what Trump says is actually worse than listening to what he says

I was reading the Trump Town Hall comments.  Read the below and try to tell me what Trump actually believes on nuclear proliferation.  It's like he is a drunk crazy person from North Philadelphia:

COOPER:  Let's talk about nuclear issues because you talked about this in a really interesting article in The New York Times.

TRUMP:  One of the very, very big issues.  I think maybe the biggest issue of our time.

COOPER:  That's what you said to The New York Times.  You said you worried about the proliferation of nuclear weapons…

TRUMP:  Right.

COOPER:  … the most.  You also said, though, that you might support Japan and South Korea developing nuclear weapons of their own.  Isn't that completely contradictory?

TRUMP:  No, not at all.  Look, you have North Korea has nuclear weapons.  And he doesn't have a carrier yet but he has got nuclear weapons.  He soon will have.  We don't want to pull the trigger.  We're just - you know, we have a president, frankly, that doesn't - nobody is afraid of our president.  Nobody respects our president.
You take a look at what's going on throughout the world.  It's not the country that it was.

COOPER:  But if you're concerned about proliferation, letting other countries get nuclear weapons, isn't that proliferation?

TRUMP:  No, no.  We owe $19 $trillion, we have another $2 trillion because of the very, very bad omnibus budget that was just signed.  It's a disgrace, which gives everything that Obama wanted.  We get nothing.  They get everything.
So that's going to be $21 trillion.  We are supporting nations now, militarily, we are supporting nations like Saudi Arabia which was making during the good oil days which was a year ago, now they're making less but still a lot, $1 billion a day.
We are supporting them, militarily, and pay us a fraction, a fraction of what they should be paying us and of the cost.  We are supporting Japan.  Most people didn't even know that.  Most people didn't know that we are taking care of Japan's military needs.  We're supporting…

TRUMP:  Excuse me, excuse me, we're supporting Germany.  We're supporting South Korea.  I order thousands of television sets because I am in the real estate business, you know, in my other life, OK.

COOPER:  It has been a U.S. policy for decades to prevent Japan from getting a nuclear weapon.

TRUMP:  That might be policy, but maybe…

COOPER:  South Korea as well.

TRUMP:  Can I be honest are you?  Maybe it's going to have to be time to change, because so many people, you have Pakistan has it, you have China has it.  You have so many other countries are now having it…

COOPER:  So some proliferation is OK?

TRUMP:  No, no, not proliferation.  I hate nuclear more than any.  My uncle was a professor was at MIT, used to (AUDIO GAP) nuclear, he used to tell me about the problem.

COOPER:  But that's contradictory about Japan and South Korea.

TRUMP:  (AUDIO GAP) Iran is going to have it very - within…

COOPER:  But that's proliferation.

TRUMP:  Excuse me, one of the dumbest I've ever seen signed ever, ever, ever by anybody, Iran is going to have it within 10 years.  Iran is going to have it.  I thought it was a very good interview in The New York Times.

COOPER:  So you have no problem with Japan and South Korea having…

TRUMP:  I thought…

COOPER:  … nuclear weapons.

TRUMP:  At some point we have to say, you know what, we're better off if Japan protects itself against this maniac in North Korea, we're better off, frankly, if South Korea is going to start to protect itself, we have…

COOPER:  Saudi Arabia, nuclear weapons?

TRUMP:  Saudi Arabia, absolutely.

COOPER:  You would be fine with them having nuclear weapons?

TRUMP:  No, not nuclear weapons, but they have to protect themselves or they have to pay us.
Here's the thing, with Japan, they have to pay us or we have to let them protect themselves.

COOPER:  So if you said, Japan, yes, it's fine, you get nuclear weapons, South Korea, you as well, and Saudi Arabia says we want them, too?

TRUMP:  Can I be honest with you?  It's going to happen, anyway.  It's going to happen anyway.  It's only a question of time.  They're going to start having them or we have to get rid of them entirely.
But you have so many countries already, China, Pakistan, you have so many countries, Russia, you have so many countries right now that have them.
Now, wouldn't you rather in a certain sense have Japan have nuclear weapons when North Korea has nuclear weapons?  And they do have them.  They absolutely have them.  They can't - they have no carrier system yet but they will very soon.
Wouldn't you rather have Japan, perhaps, they're over there, they're very close, they're very fearful of North Korea, and we're supposed to protect.

COOPER:  So you're saying you don't want more nuclear weapons in the world but you're OK with Japan and South Korea having nuclear weapons?

TRUMP:  I don't want more nuclear weapons.  I think that - you know, when I hear Obama get up and say the biggest threat to the world today is global warming, I say, is this guy kidding?
The only global warming - the only global warming I'm worried about is nuclear global warming because that's the single biggest threat.  So it's not that I'm a fan - we can't afford it anymore.  We're sitting on a tremendous bubble.  We're going to be - again, $21 trillion.  We don't have money.

Gotta say I love this new Ted Cruz ad

Thursday, March 24, 2016

Tuesday, March 1, 2016

Mark my words, if given the opportunity, Rubio will betray the #NeverTrump folks and that movement will melt away

The #NeverTrump hashtag has become very popular, especially with the conservative cool kids but I believe it has probably already reached its high water mark or will soon.  It's March 1st today and as someone who has usually picked the most conservative candidate in previous Presidential contests, I'm very familiar to losing and the emotions that go with it. Last go around, on April 25, 2012, I wrote "Screw the GOP, they don't seem to want my vote anyway" in which I quit the GOP and endorsed Gary Johnson.  Let's just say that way of thinking didn't survive to November and by then I was very pro-Mitt Romney (at least in a race vs. Obama).  Once the heat of the moment passes, you think about things in a more practical way like "do I really want the Democrats in office for another four years" and suddenly you don't hate the target of your hatred so much anymore.  So this natural progression is probably enough to doom #NeverTrump anyway but there is another reason why I think it is doomed.  Marco Rubio.

I know Marco Rubio has been attacking Trump on a very personal basis in the last week but at some point he is going to realize that he isn't going to win the nomination and if Trump is the one winning, he will go begging to the Trumpster to be his VP no matter what he says.  Why would he do this?  Because he has no other choice.  He already said he won't be running for re-election to the Senate and probably wouldn't win if he did (he only has 31% of the Florida electorate viewing him favorably according to PPP Polling).  Those numbers also indicate that he probably couldn't be elected Governor in 2018 either.  So if he wants to stay in elected politics, being Trump's VP will be his best option (and Trump will love to have Rubio crawl back to him begging). 

It just seems so inevitable that he will betray #NeverTrump just like he betrayed all those voters who went with him because he claimed to be anti-amnesty.  And once he does so, all the establishment opposition to Trump will melt away as how can they go against their golden boy Rubio, the man next in line to be President?  Sure, there will be some refuseniks but it will probably be about the same number of people who didn't vote for Mitt either.