Wednesday, December 23, 2015

Of course gay marriage isn't a top-3 issue

The Rubio/establishment folks are now trying to get Ted Cruz in trouble for not calling gay marriage a top-3 priority for him and that it should be left to the states.  They even have a quote from a "political operative" who clearly isn't that bright or is just so jaded he doesn't even know what we are fighting about:

"Wow. Does this not undermine all of his positions? Abortion, Common Core — all to the states? ... Worse, he sounds like a slick D.C. politician — says one thing on the campaign trail and trims his sails with NYC elites. Not supposed to be like that."
Give me a break.  Yes abortion should be decided by the states, that is what the whole battle of Roe v. Wade is about.  About letting people in Missouri have different abortion laws than in California instead of abortion being allowed nationally.  Same with Common Core.  It's about stopping the federal government from determining curriculum.

And gay marriage?  Please.  We have so many problems in this country why should the name for the relationship between two consenting adults be a priority for the President of the United States?  I really couldn't give a flying f*ck.  How about the lack of real jobs in this country?  Our ballooning debt?  Our loss of rights to bureaucrats?  Our borders letting terrorists in?  Our immigration officials letting terrorists in?  Baby boomers retiring causing a demographic nightmare?

This story will only help Cruz as it shows he has a f*cking brain.

Sunday, December 20, 2015

Ted Cruz is #2 in South Carolina but is in a great position to win

Even though Ted Cruz is behind Trump in South Carolina 38%-23% in the latest CBS/YouGov poll, he seems to be in a great position to win as he is viewed as more electable and prepared to be President:

Ted Cruz is at 40% in Iowa!

Ted Cruz is showing phenomenal strength in Iowa according to the latest CBS/YouGov poll.  He is at 49% among seniors!:

Saturday, December 19, 2015

Greta's Grilling

Here is the Ted Cruz interview with Greta that has the Rubio/establishment folks all thinking that it was a disaster for Cruz.  I really don't get what they think they are seeing.  Ted Cruz is calm and consistent while Greta seems like she is getting agitated that he isn't answering it the way she wants to.  It also shines a light on the fact that the Fox News folks never grill Democrats this way. 

Cruz the Happy Warrior Presents Cruz Christmas Classics

A brilliant and hilarious ad to air during SNL.  I'm sure Obama won't get it:

Friday, December 18, 2015

Post-debate PPP national poll: Cruz would kill Rubio in a head to head

Cruz is polling as #2 nationally at 18% and seems to be winning the war with Rubio in the latest PPP poll.  Importantly, it is not just because of strength among the "very conservative" but also due to strength among the "somewhat conservative".  Cruz is no slouch with moderates either so it is looking like he might be doing a good job broadening his appeal:

He even beat Rubio across age groups.
And even among those who want to nominate someone who is electable, Cruz wins.  Rubio seems to have lost the narrative:

Video of Ted Cruz Rally in Minnesota

Rubio Video from 2010 Senate campaign: I am Strongly Against Amnesty

Ted Cruz a "Hell No" on the Omnibus Spending Bill

Mike Lee: The Rubio team is lying with regards to Ted Cruz's record on amnesty

New ad subtly attacks Marco Rubio

Tuesday, December 15, 2015

Mark Levin Goes After Trump for Attacking Cruz

Another good poll for Cruz in Iowa

PPP Polling conducted an Iowa poll that had lots of good news for Ted Cruz and some interesting crosstabs.  First, here are the headline numbers with a breakdown by ideology:

Cruz, once again is leading among the Very Conservative but is also doing very well among the Somewhat Conservative, even better than the "electable" Rubio.

Which brings me to the next datapoint, in a head to head of Rubio versus Cruz where Rubio only gets Rubio, Santorum, Kasich, Graham and JEB voters.  Cruz gets the rest.

Even better, in a head to head versus Trump, only Trump voters prefer him to Cruz

One question I have is how is it that Trump is winning among those that value electability most?  Are they high?


Monday, December 14, 2015

Ted Cruz is starting to win the "somewhat conservative" in Iowa

In the latest Quinnipiac poll of Iowa voters, Trump has a slim lead and is statistically tied with Ted Cruz.  What I found most interesting was that Cruzs' improvement from the last poll came mainly from "somewhat conservative" voters where he went from 17% last time (statistically tied for third) to 25% now (statistically tied for first).  His support among the very conservative and moderates increased only a little between the two polls.  Looks like Ted Cruz is doing what he needs to do and is broadening his appeal.

Anti-Cruz folks are trying to take him down by making him sound reasonable and electable?

Apparently, there are some audio recordings from Ted Cruz's fundraisers in which "Cruz strikes a more moderate and inclusive tone on social issues than he does when speaking to Iowa audiences." I'm sure he is quaking in my boots.  He should send out this YouTube clip in response:

I really don't know what they expect to gain from this.  First, who are Cruz supporters supposed to run to?  The only options are far worse than him with murkier conservative credentials.  Second, unless Steve King and Bob Vander Plaats rescind their endorsements, Cruz will have the most devoted caucus-goers behind him which means he probably still wins.  Third, making him sound reasonable and inclusive only makes him look better to independents, moderates and billionaire donors like Paul Singer and Sheldon Adelson.  I'm sure the more conspiratorial will end up saying this was a "false flag" attack as this will probably help Cruz far more than it hurts.

Sunday, December 13, 2015

Ted Cruz has an awesome data operation

The guy is diligent and brilliant.  Check out this article on Ted Cruz's data operation:

To develop its psychographic models, Cambridge surveyed more than 150,000 households across the country and scored individuals using five basic traits: openness, conscientiousness, extraversion, agreeableness and neuroticism. A top Cambridge official didn’t respond to a request for comment, but Cruz campaign officials said the company developed its correlations in part by using data from Facebook that included subscribers’ likes. That data helped make the Cambridge data particularly powerful, campaign officials said.

The Cruz campaign modified the Cambridge template, renaming some psychological categories and adding subcategories to the list, such as “stoic traditionalist” and “true believer.” The campaign then did its own field surveys in battleground states to develop a more precise predictive model based on issue preferences.

The Cruz algorithm was then applied to what the campaign calls an “enhanced voter file,” which can contain as many as 50,000 data points gathered from voting records, popular websites and consumer information such as magazine subscriptions, car ownership and preferences for food and clothing.

Cambridge, which has staffers embedded in the Cruz for President headquarters in Houston, makes behavioral psychologists available for consultation as ads and scripts are drafted.

An email will be tweaked based on the personality of the recipient. If a respondent were a “stoic traditionalist,” the conversation would be very direct and to the point. If a potential supporter was labeled “temperamental,” the language and approach would change, according to Chris Wilson, the campaign’s director of research and analytics, who has taken a leave from the polling firm he leads, WPA Opinion Research. “The tone would be inspiring and become more and more positive as the conversation progresses,” he said.

A blockbuster weekend for Ted Cruz in the polls!

We now have a second poll (from Fox) showing that Cruz is leading in Iowa and another (NBC/WSJ) showing him as #2 nationally.  First, let's looks at the Iowa poll:

In this one, Ted Cruz is just 2 points ahead of Trump, but if you add the first and second choices, he is at 46% versus Trump's 39%.  And if Trump flames out at some point, Ted Cruz stands to majorly benefit.  I have to admit I was skeptical of his "bear hug Trump" strategy at first, but Ted Cruz really seems to know what he is doing.

Now on to the NBC/WSJ national poll:

Ted Cruz has gained 12 points since the last poll from this group and is getting very close to Trump.  Once again, if you combine first and second choices, Ted Cruz starts to look even better:

Saturday, December 12, 2015

Ted Cruz is at 31% in Iowa!

The latest Des Moines Register/Bloomberg poll shows Cruz far out in the lead in Iowa with 31%.  He's at 51% if you count first and second choices.  Also, almost half of his supporters have already made up their minds and say they can't be persuaded to change:

Ted Cruz on Breitbart News

Thursday, December 10, 2015

Ted Cruz on Morning Joe

It's official, Iowa is Ted Cruz's to lose

Bob Vander Plaats, the evangelical leader who is the one responsible for the Huckabee and Santorum wins in Iowa in previous cycles, just endorsed Ted Cruz.  Unlike Huckabee and Santorum, Cruz is likely to do so much more with the endorsement and the victory in Iowa because he is extremely well funded and has the best organization out of all the candidates.  Huck and Santorum left Iowa with only skeleton crews nationally.  Here is what he said in the Des Moines Register:

"At the end of the day, we truly believe that Ted Cruz is the most consistent and principled conservative who has the ability to not only win Iowa but I believe to win the (Republican) nomination"
Couldn't agree more.

Ted Cruz National Security Speech at the Heritage Foundation

Saturday, December 5, 2015

Ted Cruz on ISIS: "I don't know if sand can glow in the dark, but we are going to find out"

Another reason to elect Ted Cruz. No wasting American "boots on the ground". No nuanced strategy. Just carpet bomb them until they are no more:

Ted Cruz on Fox and Friends this morning

Andrew McCarthy Endorsed Ted Cruz

Andrew McCarthy, who prosecuted those responsible for the first World Trade Center bombing and is at the forefront of the battle against Islamic radicalism in the US, just endorsed Ted Cruz.  Here is a small snippet, be sure to read the whole thing:

Reinvigorating American principles will require taming Washington. It calls for restoring the Constitution as a vital limit on government, not a relic . . . or an obstacle. 
Ted Cruz gets this. Many Republicans talk the talk — we hear it in every election season, right up until it is time to stop campaigning and start governing. Senator Cruz walks the walk. That is why I believe he should be the next president of the United States. 
Cruz understands that the most immediate enemy the United States confronts on the world stage is Islamic supremacism, which ignites jihadist violence through its state sponsors, terror networks, and activist organizations. The senator has not just fought against President Obama’s disastrous Iran deal, which enriches the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism while making it a threshold nuclear power. Cruz has concurrently pushed for the designation, at long last, of the Muslim Brotherhood as a terrorist organization.

Friday, December 4, 2015

CNN Poll: Ted Cruz #1 Nationally Among College Graduates

The good news is that Ted Cruz is leading nationally among college graduates. The bad news is that we don't have enough college graduates. Those without a college degree are going overwhelmingly for Trump:

 It's also concerning that Ted Cruz is only getting 2% among moderates. 

Watch Ted Cruz at the Republican Jewish Coalition Presidential Forum

Thursday, December 3, 2015

Chris Christie could be a Marco Rubio killer

The latest poll from the folks at Public Policy Polling in New Hampshire shows a mini-surge for Chris Christie, putting him neck and neck with Marco Rubio, who is now behind Donald Trump and Ted Cruz.  This is very bad news for Marco Rubio as I believe he needs to win NH to remain a contender in the race.  But it is very good news for Ted Cruz as the more moderates in the race, the greater the chance that he wins in NH though I don't think NH is must win for him, Iowa is (and I think he has an excellent chance there). 

Also, Ted Cruz is now the top second choice for voters in NH, which means that he will benefit when other candidates drop out of the election, especially if one of their names is Trump.  Chris Christie is also a top second choice candidate, which should gives him additional incentive to stick it out, which again is bad news for Marco Rubio.  Note that in a head to head matchup of Cruz vs Rubio, Christie voters break to Rubio by a massive 65%-17% so Christie's boomlet is directly impacting Rubio's chances of prevailing.  Plus, imagine a scenario where Cruz wins Iowa and Christie wins NH, where is Rubio's electability argument then?  Nowhere, that's where. 

Wednesday, December 2, 2015

Adelson Primary Update

I was pretty sure that Sheldon Adelson was going to go with Rubio but this article makes it sound like it's still up in the air.  He likes Rubio but his wife is a Cruz fan.  I'm definitely keeping my fingers crossed that the Adelsons go with Cruz:

After being wooed by virtually all the major GOP contenders, the 82-year-old Adelson was believed to be close to announcing his backing of Florida Sen. Marco Rubio shortly after the Dec. 15 Republican debate — an event that conveniently enough is being held at the Venetian Las Vegas, a hotel Adelson owns.

That scenario, however, has run into resistance from a surprising source: Miriam Adelson, the megadonor’s strong-willed and equally hawkish wife. An Israeli-born physician, Miriam Adelson has become enamored of late with Ted Cruz, according to four Republican sources close to the couple. The Texas senator has impressed her with his unwavering toughness on national security issues, especially his support for Israel, the issue that the couple cares most passionately about.

“He really likes Marco, but she really likes Cruz — and it’s a standoff,” said one well-placed Republican fundraiser familiar with Adelson family dynamics.

It’s a standoff that could result in an awkward split decision — or no decision at all, according to some GOP insiders. Both the Adelsons give generously in their own names, almost always in tandem: The couple’s publicly reported donations exceeded $98 million during the 2012 election. Miriam Adelson wrote nearly half those checks personally, totaling more than $47 million, usually delivering them on the same day her husband wrote seven-figure checks for about the same amount.

But one prediction that is gaining traction in GOP circles is that the Adelsons may end up sitting out the early GOP primaries altogether, rather than choose sides and risk funding attack ads against a candidate one of them actually favors. Some say they could even go their separate ways, at least in the early stages of the contest. “She’s very capable of doing whatever she wants,” said one GOP insider in regular touch with the Adelsons. “If she wants to support Cruz, there’s nothing stopping her.”


A Cruz ally who is closely connected to conservative Jewish circles tells Yahoo News that the Texas senator now makes frequent phone calls to the Adelsons and has impressed Sheldon as well as Miriam. “She likes passionate, ideas-driven people,” says the Cruz supporter. But even if Cruz’ courtship does not result in actual support, his cultivation has a strategic purpose. “This is not just about an endorsement,” says the supporter who is familiar with the calls. “It’s about not being on the other side of them. You don’t want their money going to [super-Pac] attack ads against you.”

Don't believe the head to head matchups, a third of voters don't know much about Ted Cruz

The Quinnipiac national poll is a great reminder of how everything is still so early in the 2016 race.  About a third of voters don't know enough about Cruz to have an opinion of him.  Conversely, almost everyone feels they know enough about Clinton, which of course gives her a natural edge in head to head matchups.  Anyway, check out this chart:

Ted Cruz's awesome Hannity interview

Once again, he is the master:

Ted Cruz is the Rand Paul we've been waiting for

The more I listen to Ted Cruz the more I realize he is everything I always wanted Rand Paul to be.  He's very libertarian on a number of issues, including gold, marijuana legalization and the NSA but is also very sensible on foreign policy, taking on the hawks without sounding isolationist.  Check out what he told the AP:

"If President Obama and Hillary Clinton and Sen. Rubio succeed in toppling Assad, the result will be the radical Islamic terrorist will take over Syria, that Syria will be controlled by ISIS, and that is materially worse for U.S. national security interests...  If you topple a stable ruler, throw a Middle Eastern country into chaos and hand it over to radical Islamic terrorists, that hurts America"

Tuesday, December 1, 2015

Ted Cruz video on why we should oppose renewable energy credits

He really is a brave, true conservative, going against the ethanol mandate while trying to win the Iowa caucus. This video snippet was just posted today, but it was from a speech back in June at the Heritage Foundation:

Here is the whole speech:

Ted Cruz on the Hugh Hewitt Show