Thursday, December 3, 2015

Chris Christie could be a Marco Rubio killer

The latest poll from the folks at Public Policy Polling in New Hampshire shows a mini-surge for Chris Christie, putting him neck and neck with Marco Rubio, who is now behind Donald Trump and Ted Cruz.  This is very bad news for Marco Rubio as I believe he needs to win NH to remain a contender in the race.  But it is very good news for Ted Cruz as the more moderates in the race, the greater the chance that he wins in NH though I don't think NH is must win for him, Iowa is (and I think he has an excellent chance there). 

Also, Ted Cruz is now the top second choice for voters in NH, which means that he will benefit when other candidates drop out of the election, especially if one of their names is Trump.  Chris Christie is also a top second choice candidate, which should gives him additional incentive to stick it out, which again is bad news for Marco Rubio.  Note that in a head to head matchup of Cruz vs Rubio, Christie voters break to Rubio by a massive 65%-17% so Christie's boomlet is directly impacting Rubio's chances of prevailing.  Plus, imagine a scenario where Cruz wins Iowa and Christie wins NH, where is Rubio's electability argument then?  Nowhere, that's where. 

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