Tuesday, January 19, 2016

ARG: Kasich could win New Hampshire

A post-debate poll by ARG shows Kasich as #2 in New Hampshire and statistically tied with Trump among those who will "definitely" vote.

This is a bit of a weird poll as Kasich didn't exactly shine at the debate and ARG only gets a "C-" from polling guru Nate Silver. However, if true, a Kasich victory could be the death knell for Rubio as if Kasich wins he will have a bit of that "winner" aura around him and has a much better electability argument than Rubio.   He's a popular, successful centrist Governor from a battleground state.  And Rubio, is, well, polling #4 in Florida at this point.  At the very least this would seriously wound Rubio and would keep the "moderate" lane kind of crowded.

However, just to reiterate, this is a weird poll.  Nobody thought Kasich did particularly well in the South Carolina debate and it's not like he is putting in any more time in New Hampshire than other moderates.  If anyone would be surging, it should be Christie, who has put an incredible amount of time in New Hampshire and has debated well. Just look at the numbers from the candidate tracker Union Leader:

-- Jeb Bush -- 41
-- Ben Carson -- 13
-- Chris Christie -- 61
-- Ted Cruz -- 18
-- Carly Fiorina -- 49
-- Jim Gilmore -- 21
-- Mike Huckabee -- 2
-- John Kasich -- 51
-- Rand Paul -- 28
-- Marco Rubio -- 18
-- Rick Santorum -- 7
-- Donald Trump -- 20

Anyway, we'll see what happens.  If we are seeing a Kasich surge, it is coming at the right time.

No comments:

Post a Comment