Wednesday, November 11, 2015

Does Cruz have a chance to win Iowa? Hell yes!

Just felt like a little history lesson.  On November 11, 2011, the RCP average for Iowa had Herman Cain in the lead at 22.8%, Mitt Romney at 21.5% and the eventual winner, Rick Santorum at only 3.5% (this was right before the Newt boomlet which took him to 31% in the Iowa polls).  Note than Santorum actually never led in the polls (in fact he was usually #3) and was underestimated by a full 8% but won because of a superior organization, which everyone says Cruz has this time around.  Cruz is also at 12.3% over 3x higher than Santorum was at this point.  Here is the chart from 2012:

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